Systematic Approaches for the Encoding of Chemical Groups: A Case Study.

Regulatory authorities aim to organize substances into groups to facilitate prioritization within hazard and risk assessment processes. Often, such chemical groupings are not explicitly defined by structural rules or physicochemical property information. This is largely due to how these groupings are developed, namely, a manual expert curation process, which in turn makes updating and refining groupings, as new substances are evaluated, a practical challenge. Herein, machine learning methods were leveraged to build models that could preliminarily assign substances to predefined groups. A set of 86 groupings containing 2,184 substances as published on the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) website were mapped to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Distributed Toxicity Structure Database (DSSTox) content to extract chemical and structural information. Substances were represented using Morgan fingerprints, and two machine learning approaches were used to classify test substances into 56 groups containing at least 10 substances with a structural representation in the data set: k-nearest neighbor (kNN) and random forest (RF), that led to mean 5-fold cross-validation test accuracies (average F1 scores) of 0.781 and 0.853, respectively. With a 9% improvement, the RF classifier was significantly more accurate than KNN (p-value = 0.001). The approach offers promise as a means of the initial profiling of new substances into predefined groups to facilitate prioritization efforts and streamline the assessment of new substances when earlier groupings are available. The algorithm to fit and use these models has been made available in the accompanying repository, thereby enabling both use of the produced models and refitting of these models, as new groupings become available by regulatory authorities or industry.

Pervasive environmental chemicals impair oligodendrocyte development.

Exposure to environmental chemicals can impair neurodevelopment, and oligodendrocytes may be particularly vulnerable, as their development extends from gestation into adulthood. However, few environmental chemicals have been assessed for potential risks to oligodendrocytes. Here, using a high-throughput developmental screen in cultured cells, we identified environmental chemicals in two classes that disrupt oligodendrocyte development through distinct mechanisms. Quaternary compounds, ubiquitous in disinfecting agents and personal care products, were potently and selectively cytotoxic to developing oligodendrocytes, whereas organophosphate flame retardants, commonly found in household items such as furniture and electronics, prematurely arrested oligodendrocyte maturation. Chemicals from each class impaired oligodendrocyte development postnatally in mice and in a human 3D organoid model of prenatal cortical development. Analysis of epidemiological data showed that adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes were associated with childhood exposure to the top organophosphate flame retardant identified by our screen. This work identifies toxicological vulnerabilities for oligodendrocyte development and highlights the need for deeper scrutiny of these compounds' impacts on human health.

Adverse effects in traditional and alternative toxicity tests.

Chemical safety assessment begins with defining the lowest level of chemical that alters one or more measured endpoints. This critical effect level, along with factors to account for uncertainty, is used to derive limits for human exposure. In the absence of data regarding the specific mechanisms or biological pathways affected, non-specific endpoints such as body weight and non-target organ weight changes are used to set critical effect levels. Specific apical endpoints such as impaired reproductive function or altered neurodevelopment have also been used to set chemical safety limits; however, in test guidelines designed for specific apical effect(s), concurrently measured non-specific endpoints may be equally or more sensitive than specific endpoints. This means that rather than predicting a specific toxicological response, animal data are often used to develop protective critical effect levels, without assuming the same change would be observed in humans. This manuscript is intended to encourage a rethinking of how adverse chemical effects are interpreted: non-specific endpoints from in vivo toxicological studies data are often used to derive points of departure for use with safety assessment factors to create recommended exposure levels that are broadly protective but not necessarily target-specific.

High-Throughput Transcriptomics of Water Extracts Detects Reductions in Biological Activity with Water Treatment Processes.

The presence of numerous chemical contaminants from industrial, agricultural, and pharmaceutical sources in water supplies poses a potential risk to human and ecological health. Current chemical analyses suffer from limitations, including chemical coverage and high cost, and broad-coverage in vitro assays such as transcriptomics may further improve water quality monitoring by assessing a large range of possible effects. Here, we used high-throughput transcriptomics to assess the activity induced by field-derived water extracts in MCF7 breast carcinoma cells. Wastewater and surface water extracts induced the largest changes in expression among cell proliferation-related genes and neurological, estrogenic, and antibiotic pathways, whereas drinking and reclaimed water extracts that underwent advanced treatment showed substantially reduced bioactivity on both gene and pathway levels. Importantly, reclaimed water extracts induced fewer changes in gene expression than laboratory blanks, which reinforces previous conclusions based on targeted assays and improves confidence in bioassay-based monitoring of water quality.

Screening for drinking water contaminants of concern using an automated exposure-focused workflow.

BACKGROUND: The number of chemicals present in the environment exceeds the capacity of government bodies to characterize risk. Therefore, data-informed and reproducible processes are needed for identifying chemicals for further assessment. The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH), under its Contaminants of Emerging Concern (CEC) initiative, uses a standardized process to screen potential drinking water contaminants based on toxicity and exposure potential. OBJECTIVE: Recently, MDH partnered with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) to accelerate the screening process via development of an automated workflow accessing relevant exposure data, including exposure new approach methodologies (NAMs) from ORD's ExpoCast project. METHODS: The workflow incorporated information from 27 data sources related to persistence and fate, release potential, water occurrence, and exposure potential, making use of ORD tools for harmonization of chemical names and identifiers. The workflow also incorporated data and criteria specific to Minnesota and MDH's regulatory authority. The collected data were used to score chemicals using quantitative algorithms developed by MDH. The workflow was applied to 1867 case study chemicals, including 82 chemicals that were previously manually evaluated by MDH. RESULTS: Evaluation of the automated and manual results for these 82 chemicals indicated reasonable agreement between the scores although agreement depended on data availability; automated scores were lower than manual scores for chemicals with fewer available data. Case study chemicals with high exposure scores included disinfection by-products, pharmaceuticals, consumer product chemicals, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, pesticides, and metals. Scores were integrated with in vitro bioactivity data to assess the feasibility of using NAMs for further risk prioritization. SIGNIFICANCE: This workflow will allow MDH to accelerate exposure screening and expand the number of chemicals examined, freeing resources for in-depth assessments. The workflow will be useful in screening large libraries of chemicals for candidates for the CEC program.

ToxRefDB v2.1: update to curated in vivo study data in the Toxicity Reference Database.

The Toxicity Reference Database (ToxRefDB) contains in vivo study data from over 5,900 guideline or guideline-like studies for over 1,100 chemicals. The database includes information regarding study design, chemical treatment, dosing, treatment group parameters, treatment-related (significantly different from control) and critical (adverse) effects, guided by a controlled effect vocabulary, as well as endpoint testing status according to health effects guideline requirements. ToxRefDB v2.1 is an update to address a compilation error found in ToxRefDB v2.0 that resulted in some effects being inadvertently omitted from the database. Though effect data has been recovered, no new studies were added. The recovered data improves the utility of ToxRefDB as a resource for curated legacy in vivo information, which enhances scientific confidence in vitro high-throughput screening of chemicals and supports retrospective and predictive toxicology applications for which outcomes in traditional regulatory toxicology studies serve as reference information.

Evaluating the utility of a high throughput thiol-containing fluorescent probe to screen for reactivity: A case study with the Tox21 library.

High-throughput screening (HTS) assays for bioactivity in the Tox21 program aim to evaluate an array of different biological targets and pathways, but a significant barrier to interpretation of these data is the lack of high-throughput screening (HTS) assays intended to identify non-specific reactive chemicals. This is an important aspect for prioritising chemicals to test in specific assays, identifying promiscuous chemicals based on their reactivity, as well as addressing hazards such as skin sensitisation which are not necessarily initiated by a receptor-mediated effect but act through a non-specific mechanism. Herein, a fluorescence-based HTS assay that allows the identification of thiol-reactive compounds was used to screen 7,872 unique chemicals in the Tox21 10K chemical library. Active chemicals were compared with profiling outcomes using structural alerts encoding electrophilic information. Random Forest classification models based on chemical fingerprints were developed to predict assay outcomes and evaluated through 10-fold stratified cross validation (CV). The mean CV Balanced Accuracy of the validation set was 0.648. The model developed shows promise as a tool to screen untested chemicals for their potential electrophilic reactivity based solely on chemical structural features.

Pervasive environmental chemicals impair oligodendrocyte development.

Exposure to environmental chemicals can impair neurodevelopment1-4. Oligodendrocytes that wrap around axons to boost neurotransmission may be particularly vulnerable to chemical toxicity as they develop throughout fetal development and into adulthood5,6. However, few environmental chemicals have been assessed for potential risks to oligodendrocyte development. Here, we utilized a high-throughput developmental screen and human cortical brain organoids, which revealed environmental chemicals in two classes that disrupt oligodendrocyte development through distinct mechanisms. Quaternary compounds, ubiquitous in disinfecting agents, hair conditioners, and fabric softeners, were potently and selectively cytotoxic to developing oligodendrocytes through activation of the integrated stress response. Organophosphate flame retardants, commonly found in household items such as furniture and electronics, were non-cytotoxic but prematurely arrested oligodendrocyte maturation. Chemicals from each class impaired human oligodendrocyte development in a 3D organoid model of prenatal cortical development. In analysis of epidemiological data from the CDC's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, adverse neurodevelopmental outcomes were associated with childhood exposure to the top organophosphate flame retardant identified by our oligodendrocyte toxicity platform. Collectively, our work identifies toxicological vulnerabilities specific to oligodendrocyte development and highlights common household chemicals with high exposure risk to children that warrant deeper scrutiny for their impact on human health.

Evaluation of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) In Vitro Toxicity Testing for Developmental Neurotoxicity.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a diverse set of commercial chemicals widely detected in humans and the environment. However, only a limited number of PFAS are associated with epidemiological or experimental data for hazard identification. To provide developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) hazard information, the work herein employed DNT new approach methods (NAMs) to generate in vitro screening data for a set of 160 PFAS. The DNT NAMs battery was comprised of the microelectrode array neuronal network formation assay (NFA) and high-content imaging (HCI) assays to evaluate proliferation, apoptosis, and neurite outgrowth. The majority of PFAS (118/160) were inactive or equivocal in the DNT NAMs, leaving 42 active PFAS that decreased measures of neural network connectivity and neurite length. Analytical quality control indicated 43/118 inactive PFAS samples and 10/42 active PFAS samples were degraded; as such, careful interpretation is required as some negatives may have been due to loss of the parent PFAS, and some actives may have resulted from a mixture of parent and/or degradants of PFAS. PFAS containing a perfluorinated carbon (C) chain length ≥8, a high C:fluorine ratio, or a carboxylic acid moiety were more likely to be bioactive in the DNT NAMs. Of the PFAS positives in DNT NAMs, 85% were also active in other EPA ToxCast assays, whereas 79% of PFAS inactives in the DNT NAMs were active in other assays. These data demonstrate that a subset of PFAS perturb neurodevelopmental processes in vitro and suggest focusing future studies of DNT on PFAS with certain structural feature descriptors.

Advances in computational methods along the exposure to toxicological response paradigm.

Human health risk assessment is a function of chemical toxicity, bioavailability to reach target biological tissues, and potential environmental exposure. These factors are complicated by many physiological, biochemical, physical and lifestyle factors. Furthermore, chemical health risk assessment is challenging in view of the large, and continually increasing, number of chemicals found in the environment. These challenges highlight the need to prioritize resources for the efficient and timely assessment of those environmental chemicals that pose greatest health risks. Computational methods, either predictive or investigative, are designed to assist in this prioritization in view of the lack of cost prohibitive in vivo experimental data. Computational methods provide specific and focused toxicity information using in vitro high throughput screening (HTS) assays. Information from the HTS assays can be converted to in vivo estimates of chemical levels in blood or target tissue, which in turn are converted to in vivo dose estimates that can be compared to exposure levels of the screened chemicals. This manuscript provides a review for the landscape of computational methods developed and used at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) highlighting their potentials and challenges.

Integrating Data From In Vitro New Approach Methodologies for Developmental Neurotoxicity.

In vivo developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) testing is resource intensive and lacks information on cellular processes affected by chemicals. To address this, DNT new approach methodologies (NAMs) are being evaluated, including: the microelectrode array neuronal network formation assay; and high-content imaging to evaluate proliferation, apoptosis, neurite outgrowth, and synaptogenesis. This work addresses 3 hypotheses: (1) a broad screening battery provides a sensitive marker of DNT bioactivity; (2) selective bioactivity (occurring at noncytotoxic concentrations) may indicate functional processes disrupted; and, (3) a subset of endpoints may optimally classify chemicals with in vivo evidence for DNT. The dataset was comprised of 92 chemicals screened in all 57 assay endpoints sourced from publicly available data, including a set of DNT NAM evaluation chemicals with putative positives (53) and negatives (13). The DNT NAM battery provides a sensitive marker of DNT bioactivity, particularly in cytotoxicity and network connectivity parameters. Hierarchical clustering suggested potency (including cytotoxicity) was important for classifying positive chemicals with high sensitivity (93%) but failed to distinguish patterns of disrupted functional processes. In contrast, clustering of selective values revealed informative patterns of differential activity but demonstrated lower sensitivity (74%). The false negatives were associated with several limitations, such as the maximal concentration tested or gaps in the biology captured by the current battery. This work demonstrates that this multi-dimensional assay suite provides a sensitive biomarker for DNT bioactivity, with selective activity providing possible insight into specific functional processes affected by chemical exposure and a basis for further research.

Comparison of Approaches for Determining Bioactivity Hits from High-Dimensional Profiling Data.

Phenotypic profiling assays are untargeted screening assays that measure a large number (hundreds to thousands) of cellular features in response to a stimulus and often yield diverse and unanticipated profiles of phenotypic effects, leading to challenges in distinguishing active from inactive treatments. Here, we compare a variety of different strategies for hit identification in imaging-based phenotypic profiling assays using a previously published Cell Painting data set. Hit identification strategies based on multiconcentration analysis involve curve fitting at several levels of data aggregation (e.g., individual feature level, aggregation of similarly derived features into categories, and global modeling of all features) and on computed metrics (e.g., Euclidean and Mahalanobis distance metrics and eigenfeatures). Hit identification strategies based on single-concentration analysis included measurement of signal strength (e.g., total effect magnitude) and correlation of profiles among biological replicates. Modeling parameters for each approach were optimized to retain the ability to detect a reference chemical with subtle phenotypic effects while limiting the false-positive rate to 10%. The percentage of test chemicals identified as hits was highest for feature-level and category-based approaches, followed by global fitting, whereas signal strength and profile correlation approaches detected the fewest number of active hits at the fixed false-positive rate. Approaches involving fitting of distance metrics had the lowest likelihood for identifying high-potency false-positive hits that may be associated with assay noise. Most of the methods achieved a 100% hit rate for the reference chemical and high concordance for 82% of test chemicals, indicating that hit calls are robust across different analysis approaches.

Thresholds Derived From Common Measures in Rat Studies Are Predictive of Liver Tumorigenic Chemicals.

We hypothesized that typical tissue and clinical chemistry (ClinChem) end points measured in rat toxicity studies exhibit chemical-independent biological thresholds beyond which cancer occurs. Using the rat in vivo TG-GATES study, 75 chemicals were examined across chemical-dose-time comparisons that could be linked to liver tumor outcomes. Thresholds for liver weight to body weight (LW/BW) and 21 serum ClinChem end points were defined as the maximum and minimum values for those exposures that did not lead to liver tumors in rats. Upper thresholds were identified for LW/BW (117%), aspartate aminotransferase (195%), alanine aminotransferase (141%), alkaline phosphatase (152%), and total bilirubin (115%), and lower thresholds were identified for phospholipids (82%), relative albumin (93%), total cholesterol (82%), and total protein (94%). Thresholds derived from the TG-GATES data set were consistent across other acute and subchronic rat studies. A training set of ClinChem and LW/BW thresholds derived from a 38 chemical training set from TG-GATES was predictive of liver tumor outcomes for a test set of 37 independent TG-GATES chemicals (91%). The thresholds were most predictive when applied to 7d treatments (98%). These findings provide support that biological thresholds for common end points in rodent studies can be used to predict chemical tumorigenic potential.

Selecting a minimal set of androgen receptor assays for screening chemicals.

Screening certain environmental chemicals for their ability to interact with endocrine targets, including the androgen receptor (AR), is an important global concern. We previously developed a model using a battery of eleven in vitro AR assays to predict in vivo AR activity. Here we describe a revised mathematical modeling approach that also incorporates data from newly available assays and demonstrate that subsets of assays can provide close to the same level of predictivity. These subset models are evaluated against the full model using 1820 chemicals, as well as in vitro and in vivo reference chemicals from the literature. Agonist batteries of as few as six assays and antagonist batteries of as few as five assays can yield balanced accuracies of 95% or better relative to the full model. Balanced accuracy for predicting reference chemicals is 100%. An approach is outlined for researchers to develop their own subset batteries to accurately detect AR activity using assays that map to the pathway of key molecular and cellular events involved in chemical-mediated AR activation and transcriptional activity. This work indicates in vitro bioactivity and in silico predictions that map to the AR pathway could be used in an integrated approach to testing and assessment for identifying chemicals that interact directly with the mammalian AR.

Respirometric Screening and Characterization of Mitochondrial Toxicants Within the ToxCast Phase I and II Chemical Libraries.

Mitochondrial toxicity drives several adverse health outcomes. Current high-throughput screening assays for chemically induced mitochondrial toxicity typically measure changes to mitochondrial structure and may not detect known mitochondrial toxicants. We adapted a respirometric screening assay (RSA) measuring mitochondrial function to screen ToxCast chemicals in HepG2 cells using a tiered testing strategy. Of 1042 chemicals initially screened at a singlemaximal concentration, 243 actives were identified and rescreened at 7 concentrations. Concentration-response data for 3 respiration phases confirmed activity and indicated a mechanism for 193 mitochondrial toxicants: 149 electron transport chain inhibitors (ETCi), 15 uncouplers and 29 adenosine triphosphate synthase inhibitors. Subsequently, an electron flow assay was used to identify the target complex for 84 of the 149 ETCi. Sixty reference chemicals were used to compare the RSA to existing ToxCast and Tox21 mitochondrial toxicity assays. The RSA was most predictive (accuracy = 90%) of mitochondrial toxicity. The Tox21 mitochondrial membrane potential assay was also highly predictive (accuracy = 87%) of bioactivity but underestimated the potency of well-known ETCi and provided no mechanistic information. The tiered RSA approach accurately identifies and characterizes mitochondrial toxicants acting through diverse mechanisms and at a throughput sufficient to screen large chemical inventories. The electron flow assay provides additional confirmation and detailed mechanistic understanding for ETCi, the most common type of mitochondrial toxicants among ToxCast chemicals. The mitochondrial toxicity screening approach described herein may inform hazard assessment and the in vitro bioactive concentrations used to derive relevant doses for screening level chemical assessment using new approach methodologies.

Bioactivity screening of environmental chemicals using imaging-based high-throughput phenotypic profiling.

The present study adapted an existing high content imaging-based high-throughput phenotypic profiling (HTPP) assay known as "Cell Painting" for bioactivity screening of environmental chemicals. This assay uses a combination of fluorescent probes to label a variety of organelles and measures a large number of phenotypic features at the single cell level in order to detect chemical-induced changes in cell morphology. First, a small set of candidate phenotypic reference chemicals (n = 14) known to produce changes in the cellular morphology of U-2 OS cells were identified and screened at multiple time points in concentration-response format. Many of these chemicals produced distinct cellular phenotypes that were qualitatively similar to those previously described in the literature. A novel workflow for phenotypic feature extraction, concentration-response modeling and determination of in vitro thresholds for chemical bioactivity was developed. Subsequently, a set of 462 chemicals from the ToxCast library were screened in concentration-response mode. Bioactivity thresholds were calculated and converted to administered equivalent doses (AEDs) using reverse dosimetry. AEDs were then compared to effect values from mammalian toxicity studies. In many instances (68%), the HTPP-derived AEDs were either more conservative than or comparable to the in vivo effect values. Overall, we conclude that the HTPP assay can be used as an efficient, cost-effective and reproducible screening method for characterizing the biological activity and potency of environmental chemicals for potential use in in vitro-based safety assessments.

Extrapolating In Vitro Screening Assay Data for Thyroperoxidase Inhibition to Predict Serum Thyroid Hormones in the Rat.

Thyroperoxidase (TPO) is an enzyme essential for thyroid hormone (TH) synthesis and a target site for a number of xenobiotics that disrupt TH homeostasis. An in vitro high-throughput screening assay for TPO inhibition, the Amplex UltraRed-TPO (AUR-TPO), has been used to screen the ToxCast chemical libraries for this action. Output from this assay would be most useful if it could be readily translated into an in vivo response, namely a reduction of TH in serum. To this end, the relationship between TPO inhibition in vitro and serum TH decreases was examined in rats exposed to 2 classic TPO inhibitors, propylthiouracil (PTU) and methimazole (MMI). Serum and gland PTU, MMI, and TH levels were quantified using tandem liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Thyroperoxidase activity was determined in thyroid gland microsomes treated with PTU or MMI in vitro and ex vivo from thyroid gland microsomes prepared from exposed animals. A quantitative model was constructed by contrasting in vitro and ex vivo AUR-TPO results and the in vivo time-course and dose-response analysis. In vitro:ex vivo correlations of AUR-TPO outputs indicated that less than 30% inhibition of TPO in vitro was sufficient to reduce serum T4 by 20%, a degree of regulatory significance. Although further testing of model estimates using other TPO inhibitors is essential for verification of these initial findings, the results of this study provide a means to translate in vitro screening assay results into predictions of in vivo serum T4 changes to inform risk assessment.

Utility of In Vitro Bioactivity as a Lower Bound Estimate of In Vivo Adverse Effect Levels and in Risk-Based Prioritization.

Use of high-throughput, in vitro bioactivity data in setting a point-of-departure (POD) has the potential to accelerate the pace of human health safety evaluation by informing screening-level assessments. The primary objective of this work was to compare PODs based on high-throughput predictions of bioactivity, exposure predictions, and traditional hazard information for 448 chemicals. PODs derived from new approach methodologies (NAMs) were obtained for this comparison using the 50th (PODNAM, 50) and the 95th (PODNAM, 95) percentile credible interval estimates for the steady-state plasma concentration used in in vitro to in vivo extrapolation of administered equivalent doses. Of the 448 substances, 89% had a PODNAM, 95 that was less than the traditional POD (PODtraditional) value. For the 48 substances for which PODtraditional < PODNAM, 95, the PODNAM and PODtraditional were typically within a factor of 10 of each other, and there was an enrichment of chemical structural features associated with organophosphate and carbamate insecticides. When PODtraditional < PODNAM, 95, it did not appear to result from an enrichment of PODtraditional based on a particular study type (eg, developmental, reproductive, and chronic studies). Bioactivity:exposure ratios, useful for identification of substances with potential priority, demonstrated that high-throughput exposure predictions were greater than the PODNAM, 95 for 11 substances. When compared with threshold of toxicological concern (TTC) values, the PODNAM, 95 was greater than the corresponding TTC value 90% of the time. This work demonstrates the feasibility, and continuing challenges, of using in vitro bioactivity as a protective estimate of POD in screening-level assessments via a case study.

Variability in in vivo studies: Defining the upper limit of performance for predictions of systemic effect levels.

New approach methodologies (NAMs) for chemical hazard assessment are often evaluated via comparison to animal studies; however, variability in animal study data limits NAM accuracy. The US EPA Toxicity Reference Database (ToxRefDB) enables consideration of variability in effect levels, including the lowest effect level (LEL) for a treatment-related effect and the lowest observable adverse effect level (LOAEL) defined by expert review, from subacute, subchronic, chronic, multi-generation reproductive, and developmental toxicity studies. The objectives of this work were to quantify the variance within systemic LEL and LOAEL values, defined as potency values for effects in adult or parental animals only, and to estimate the upper limit of NAM prediction accuracy. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and augmented cell means (ACM) models were used to quantify the total variance, and the fraction of variance in systemic LEL and LOAEL values explained by available study descriptors (e.g., administration route, study type). The MLR approach considered each study descriptor as an independent contributor to variance, whereas the ACM approach combined categorical descriptors into cells to define replicates. Using these approaches, total variance in systemic LEL and LOAEL values (in log10-mg/kg/day units) ranged from 0.74 to 0.92. Unexplained variance in LEL and LOAEL values, approximated by the residual mean square error (MSE), ranged from 0.20-0.39. Considering subchronic, chronic, or developmental study designs separately resulted in similar values. Based on the relationship between MSE and R-squared for goodness-of-fit, the maximal R-squared may approach 55 to 73% for a NAM-based predictive model of systemic toxicity using these data as reference. The root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 0.47 to 0.63 log10-mg/kg/day, depending on dataset and regression approach, suggesting that a two-sided minimum prediction interval for systemic effect levels may have a width of 58 to 284-fold. These findings suggest quantitative considerations for building scientific confidence in NAM-based systemic toxicity predictions.

Development of a prioritization method for chemical-mediated effects on steroidogenesis using an integrated statistical analysis of high-throughput H295R data.

Synthesis of 11 steroid hormones in human adrenocortical carcinoma cells (H295R) was measured in a high-throughput steroidogenesis assay (HT-H295R) for 656 chemicals in concentration-response as part of the US Environmental Protection Agency's ToxCast program. This work extends previous analysis of the HT-H295R dataset and model by examining the utility of a novel prioritization metric based on the Mahalanobis distance that reduced these 11-dimensional data to 1-dimension via calculation of a mean Mahalanobis distance (mMd) at each chemical concentration screened for all hormone measures available. Herein, we evaluated the robustness of mMd values, and demonstrate that covariance and variance of the hormones measured appear independent of the chemicals screened and are inherent to the assay; the Type I error rate of the mMd method is less than 1%; and, absolute fold changes (up or down) of 1.5 to 2-fold have sufficient power for statistical significance. As a case study, we examined hormone responses for aromatase inhibitors in the HT-H295R assay and found high concordance with other ToxCast assays for known aromatase inhibitors. Finally, we used mMd and other ToxCast cytotoxicity data to demonstrate prioritization of the most selective and active chemicals as candidates for further in vitro or in silico screening.